South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has prioritized fixing South Korea’s relationship with Japan. Can he make it happen?

The post Making the South Korea-Japan Rapprochement Last appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Russia is sinking. It cannot win the war, and its economy is in trouble. All this will worsen as the war continues. China will not support a loser.

The post China and Russia: An Alliance of Convenience Crumbles appeared first on 19FortyFive.

South Korea President Yoon Seok-Yeol visited Washington, DC this week. He received a full state visit, complete with a dinner where he karaoke’ d the audience. The US-South Korea alliance has not had this level of comity at the top in years. Under former US President Donald Trump and former South Korean President Moon Jae-In, relations hit […]

The post The US-South Korea Alliance Is Back appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Tucker Carlson was also notorious for his racial trolling. Carlson’s programs were drenched in racial imagery. Will Fox News now change?

The post Tucker Carlson Is Gone: Will Fox News Finally Drop the Extremism? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Putin can force the Ukraine war on his population given the power of the repressive apparatus. But more than anything, he needs to win the war and go home to reconstitute his military and economy.

The post Putin Has a Plan to Get Out Of His ‘Unwinnable’ Ukraine War appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Russia may still win in the minimal sense of holding onto some conquered territory (although I doubt even that). But in every other important aspect, the war has been a disaster, and it is getting worse.

The post Finland Joins NATO: That Means Russia Has Truly Lost the Ukraine War appeared first on 19FortyFive.

If Trump had retired from politics, as President Richard Nixon did in the wake of the Watergate scandal, many of the cases against him would likely be dropped, even if they have legal merit. But Trump is relentless and unscrupulous. He insists on running for office again, despite his many scandals and allegations. In doing so, he is forcing the country into a binary choice of either investigating an ex-president or tolerating his lawlessness. 

The post Donald Trump Has Only Himself To Blame appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Trump has never won the popular vote. He squeaked into the presidency via the Electoral College in 2016. He also has poor coattails. Trumpian candidates performed poorly in 2022. This indictment is likely to further alienate swing voters who already think Trump is too crude and volatile to be president. The indictment is likely to help current US President Joseph Biden win reelection.

The post Donald Trump’s Fate Is Now Sealed appeared first on 19FortyFive.

No matter how many times Putin waves his nukes around for the Western press, they do not meaningfully change the course of war in Ukraine. There is no obvious way to use them for victory, and a nuclear strike on NATO would be suicidal. It is just another gimmick from an aging, paranoid dictator frustrated by a war he cannot win.

The post Russian Nukes in Belarus: Just Another Gimmick by Putin appeared first on 19FortyFive.

As the war has turned into a grind which Russia cannot win – so long as the West supports Ukraine – Putin has increasingly looked to China. Chinese support would indeed be that game-changer if Putin can pull it out of Xi. China’s economy is large and productive. But Chinese intervention has always been more hope than strategy, and this month’s Xi-Putin meeting indicates that yet again.

The post Can Russia Win in Ukraine Without Major Help from China? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Trump’s intense, cult-like bond with his voters is well-established. His arrest is more likely to verify the premises of that bond than challenge it. The real question looms over the general then, where Trump is on track to lose the popular vote, as he did before.

The post Arrest Trump? That Makes Him the GOP Nominee (But Can’t Beat Biden) appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis recently told Fox News host Tucker Carlson that the US should avoid deeper involvement in the Ukraine War. It is a ‘territorial dispute’ between Russia and Ukraine. It is not a ‘vital’ interest, compared to issue like US border security or ‘wokeness’ in American institutions. It is unclear if DeSantis […]

The post Does Ron DeSantis Believe What He Is Saying on Ukraine? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Australia has long been a reliable US ally. The recently mooted submarine deal which links Australia to the US – as a part of the AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, United States) bloc – is a good arrangement for both sides. The deal looks to be the sale of five used American Virginia-class submarines. Their used […]

The post Why Australia Wants Virginia-Class Attack Submarines (Think China) appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Donald Trump is Still Beating Ron DeSantis: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is still, despite all the media hype, on track to lose the Republican primary for the 2024 US presidential race. Former President Donald Trump has entered the race already and recently gave an aggressive, even frightening, address at the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) […]

The post Ron DeSantis: Destined to Get Crushed by Donald Trump? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Donald Trump at CPAC: An Avenging Angel…Who will Also Protect Social Security? – Former U.S. President Donald Trump is nothing if not mercurial. At this week’s Conservative Political Action Committee conference, Trump was both frightening and reassuring. He struck perhaps the most vengeful tone yet in his political career; he actually said, ‘I am your […]

The post Would Donald Trump Raise Taxes to Save Social Security? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

In the last days of February, sitting President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump made trips that contrasted their widely differing priorities in foreign policy. Though both were significant locations. President Biden went to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of that country. Ex-president Trump, by contrast, […]

The post Donald Trump Went to East Palestine. Joe Biden Went to Ukraine: What It Means appeared first on 19FortyFive.

North Korea Just Tested Another ICBM: This Will Continue Indefinitely It is not surprising at all anymore that North Korea tests missiles. It launched another intercontinental ballistic missile in a test this weekend. And as usual, there is no obvious way for the rest of the world to stop them. Sanctions can make it harder […]

The post Get Ready: North Korea Testing ICBMs Is the New Normal appeared first on 19FortyFive.

How Does Ron DeSantis See America’s Role in the World?: The Republican primary for the 2024 presidential contest is heating up. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley just announced her candidacy. And former US President Donald Trump has already joined. It is widely expected that the race will be between him and Florida Republican Governor […]

The post Ron DeSantis Has One Big Question to Answer appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Donald Trump’s Legal Troubles Won’t Hurt Him at All in the GOP Primary – and Evangelicals are to Blame: Once again, former US President Donald Trump is on the verge of an indictment. Trump has skipped in and out of legal trouble throughout his career. This time, he is close to trouble over his liaison […]

The post Donald Trump Is the GOP’s Great Sin appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Donald Trump is Slipping Against Ron DeSantis: In November 2022, former US President Donald Trump announced he was running for president yet again. This is Trump’s third run. He surprised the political world with his narrow victory in 2016. He ran – and lost – as the incumbent in 2020. He seems determined to unwind […]

The post Can Donald Trump Really Beat Ron DeSantis? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

South Korea’s President Mentions the Possible Nuclearization of His Country – South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol suggested in a press conference last week that South Korea might develop its own nuclear weapon. There has been a rolling debate in South Korea for about a year on its potential nuclearization. (Subscribe to Our YouTube Channel Here. […]

The post Will South Korea Build Nuclear Weapons? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Transparency is Joe Biden’s Best Answer to the Classified Documents Scandal: U.S. President Joseph Biden has stumbled into an awkward scandal with parallels to the one surrounding former President Donald Trump. (Subscribe to Our YouTube Channel Here.)  Like Trump, Biden appears to have retained classified material away from appropriate and secure locations. Enough material has […]

The post The Classified Documents Drama Won’t End Joe Biden’s Presidency appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Kevin McCarthy is, at last, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. But the fight to get him there was tremendous – no balloting for speaker had gone on so long in more than a century. And it is clear that McCarthy had to pay off holdouts in the GOP House caucus with substantial concessions […]

The post The Next Big GOP Civil War: A Debt Ceiling Showdown? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Kevin McCarthy’s Struggle to Be Speaker and the GOP’s Turn against Governance – After two days and six votes for Speaker of the US House of Representatives, it seems increasingly unlikely that Representative Kevin McCarthy (CA-22) will attain that position. (Subscribe to Our YouTube Channel Here. Check out More 19FortyFive Videos Here) Republican defectors – […]

The post Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker War Proves the GOP Is Broken appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president in 2024 last November. First, he must win the Republican primary. He faces a potentially tough primary challenger in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Nevertheless, Trump will likely win. None of the likely challengers deviates that much from ‘Trumpism’ – Trump’s aggressive culture war posturing and […]

The post Donald Trump Is Destined to Win the GOP Nomination Again appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Former US President Donald Trump is now in legal jeopardy for his actions on January 6, 2021. The US Congressional special investigative committee of the insurrection that day has suggested to the Department of Justice that Trump be indicted for crimes, including insurrection, a core violation of his oath of office. As 19FortyFive’s own Brent […]

The post Is Donald Trump Headed to Prison? You Might Not Like the Answer appeared first on 19FortyFive.

As winter sets in, the fighting in Ukraine will slow. Both sides will use the downtime to resupply and refit for next year’s warm weather fighting season. So this is an excellent time to take stock of where the conflict stands after ten months and look for larger trends above the ebb and flow of […]

The post Putin’s War in Ukraine Is Now a Historic Disaster appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Only Troublemakers like North Korea and Russia Benefit from a Sino-US Cold War: If the United States and China fall into a cold war, the only countries in the world to benefit would be places like Russia and North Korea. The rest of the Indo-Pacific would suffer dramatically if the US and China fight what […]

The post North Korea and Russia: The Only Winners in a U.S.-China Cold War? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

The Russian Nuclear Threat in Ukraine is Fading: As the war in Ukraine has ground on, Russian President Vladimir Putin has occasionally made threats to use nuclear weapons. He has variously hinted that he might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine to change the course of the war – where his military is losing – […]

The post Putin Would Be a Total Fool to Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Winter will Not Save Russia in Ukraine: As winter arrives in Europe, operations in the Ukraine War will slow. Both sides will likely use the time to re-arm and re-fit for warmer weather operations next year. But for the Russians, the winter is also a major part of whatever remains of its ‘plan’ to win […]

The post Sorry, Putin: Russia Can’t Use Winter to Win the War in Ukraine appeared first on 19FortyFive.

A Victory for Ukraine would be Excellent for Asia – and Not Just Taiwan: There has been much talk about the lessons of the Ukraine War for Taiwan. But ramifications of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war reach even wider for East Asia. A Ukrainian victory, although operationally irrelevant there, would be grand and strategically relevant […]

The post A Win for Ukraine Against Russia Means Trouble for China and North Korea appeared first on 19FortyFive.

The last year has seen a rising debate about whether South Korea should acquire nuclear weapons. The argument for this step is two-fold: First, North Korea acquired the ability to strike the US homeland in 2017 with a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This automatically reduces the credibility of the US security guarantee to South […]

The post Blame North Korea and China if South Korea Builds Nuclear Weapons appeared first on 19FortyFive.

What Would a South Korean Nuclear Weapons Program Look Like?: In the last year, a gathering debate has arisen in South Korea about whether it should build nuclear weapons to counter North Korea’s nuclear weapons. North Korea’s relentless missile testing program this year has pushed forward this debate. If the Pyongyang regime conducts another nuclear […]

The post Why South Korea Could Build a Small Nuclear Weapons Arsenal appeared first on 19FortyFive.

North Korea, once again, tested an intercontinental ballistic missile this week. It is another among dozens of missile tests this year. This one notably can strike the continental United States. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has vowed to continue this year’s aggressive testing regimen. And a seventh nuclear test is widely expected this year […]

The post North Korea Keeps Testing ICBMs (And We Can’t Stop Them) appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Since the start of the Ukraine war in February, there has been a regular current of alarmism and exaggeration among observers in the West. We have heard repeatedly that Ukraine is leading us into a massive conflict, one that might even end with a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia. The Ukraine war, in this […]

The post The Ukraine War Is Not World War III appeared first on 19FortyFive.

U.S. and South Korean intelligence have hinted for a while this year that North Korea would test a nuclear weapon. Speculation is rising in the wake of the North’s many recent missile tests. North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests to date. It has not tested a warhead since 2017. At that point, North Korean […]

The post North Korea Could Soon Test a Nuclear Weapon: The Before and After appeared first on 19FortyFive.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s rising belligerence under President Xi Jinping has raised concern about a possible Chinese move against Taiwan. China just completed a major congress of its Communist Party. Xi engineered a third term for himself as president, breaking the vague, post-Deng Xiaoping norm that Chinese presidents should only serve two […]

The post Can China Invade and Conquer Taiwan? Study Ukraine appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Throughout his war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has obliquely hinted that he might use nuclear weapons. I have argued in these pages that this is unlikely. There is no obvious Ukrainian military or infrastructural target of a size commensurate with a nuclear weapon’s power. Russia would be badly isolated by the rest of the world […]

The post What Will NATO Do If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Rogue States Win if Russia uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine: Great anxiety has arisen because of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s oblique nuclear threats in the Ukraine war. There has been much talk of an escalating nuclear conflict with the West. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seems to think this possibility is substantial. Such a strike […]

The post Rogue States Like North Korea Win if Putin Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine appeared first on 19FortyFive.

In the last few weeks, there has been widespread speculation that Russian President Vladimir Putin might use a nuclear weapon in his war against Ukraine. This has generated speculation on how the West might react, including the use of nuclear weapons in response. As Cheryl Rofer notes, much of this commentary has been irresponsible, trading […]

The post 4 Reasons Putin Won’t Start a Nuclear War over Ukraine appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Last week, North Korea tested a ballistic missile by launching it over Japan. The last few weeks have seen a stepped-up testing rate from the North. Ostensibly these tests are to protest US-South Korea military exercises, including the visit of a US aircraft carrier to South Korea. Pyongyang has a history of testing to make a […]

The post North Korea Will Keep Testing Missiles (There Is Little We Can Do About It) appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin pushed through the annexation of invaded territories in Ukraine. These territories are not fully conquered. Indeed, a short time after Putin’s announcement, the Ukrainians recaptured Lyman, a city Russia claims it annexed.  Most countries will not recognize Russia’s moves. Even China, Russia’s shadow ally in the war, will likely […]

The post Vladimir Putin Now Stands Alone appeared first on 19FortyFive.

It is increasingly clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin is panicking over the course of his war in Ukraine. Ukraine won a major, rapid victory in September with an offensive for which the Russian army was clearly unprepared. Putin’s response was to announce a hasty mobilization of Russian reserve forces, totalling 300,000. It is evident […]

The post Putin’s Ukraine Strategy Is One Giant Bet on 300,000 ‘Reserve’ Troops appeared first on 19FortyFive.

This week Russia will conduct referendums on the accession to Russia of several of its conquered territories in Ukraine. As many have pointed out, these votes will not be remotely fair or open. They are being conducted at gunpoint and are intended primarily for the Russian sympathizers and collaborators in the conquered areas. The results […]

The post Putin Will Soon Have His Reason to Escalate in Ukraine appeared first on 19FortyFive.

In mid-September, Russian President Vladimir Putin faced his toughest choice of the war. Ukraine had recently reconquered a large chunk of Russia’s hard-won gains in the country’s east, pushing the war’s course into the mainstream of Russian public discourse and forcing a choice on escalation. The war is not very popular at home. Putin had […]

The post Russia Seems Destined to Lose the War in Ukraine appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Ukraine’s Recent Battlefield Successes Validate Giving It a Chance to Win: Earlier this summer, it became conventional wisdom that Russia would grind down the Ukrainian army in a war of attrition. Yes, Ukraine had defeated the initial Russian blitzkrieg on its capital, Kyiv. But Ukraine was still severely outnumbered and outgunned. As Russia focused its […]

The post Ukraine Deserves a Chance to Beat Russia on the Battlefield appeared first on 19FortyFive.

This week North Korea once again attracted world attention to its nuclear weapons program by passing a law rejecting denuclearization and negotiation about its weapons program. This legislation emerged from North Korea’s legislature, the Supreme People’s Assembly, and was pronounced by the country’s supreme leader, Kim Jong Un. The law also included a frightening provision […]

The post We Must Plan to Defend Against North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has bogged down, and the conflict has moved into a stalemate. This means Russia is holding its current conquests in the east and south of Ukraine. It may even formally incorporate them into the Russian state. But it is no longer making major progress. Similarly, Ukraine has stopped losing territory and […]

The post Russia Can’t Let Ukraine Turn Into a Vietnam War 2.0 appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, toured East Asia last week. Much debate was stirred by her visit to Taiwan, of course. But Pelosi also stopped by other East Asian partners of the United States, including South Korea where she received a noticeably confused reception. She was not greeted by any […]

The post Why South Korea’s President Would Not Meet with Nancy Pelosi appeared first on 19FortyFive.

In South Korea, the discussion of developing indigenous nuclear weapons is expanding. South Korean public opinion is moving on this issue, as is the national debate (here, here, here, here). What was once a fringe area of discussion is now increasingly debated. At the Asian Leadership Conference in Seoul last week, there was more open […]

The post Don’t Be Shocked if South Korea Wants Nuclear Weapons appeared first on 19FortyFive.

Revanchism Drives Putin’s Ukraine War: Last week, as Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russian President Vladimir Putin made a startling confession: he had no objection to those two countries joining NATO. His reasoning was that Russia had no territorial disputes with them, but it did with Ukraine. This flew in the […]

The post Putin’s Ukraine War Is Not About NATO, But Dead Imperial Dreams appeared first on 19FortyFive.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization recently concluded a major meeting in Madrid. Two large decisions were taken – first, to substantially expand support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, and second, to tighten relations with select Asian democracies because of China. The Chinese response to this has been to exaggerate the meeting as NATO’s […]

The post China’s Support for Russia in Ukraine: One Giant Mistake appeared first on 19FortyFive.

South Korea’s New President Brings Seoul Back to the Democratic Community: South Korea’s new president, Yoon Seok-Yeol, went to the recent Madrid summit of NATO. This was a sharp and welcome shift in South Korean foreign policy from the drift and distance from partner democracies that characterized the previous South Korean presidency, of Moon Jae-In. […]

The post Yoon Seok-Yeol Is Rebuilding South Korean Foreign Policy appeared first on 19FortyFive.

North Korea has long been rumored to be working on smaller nuclear weapons. These could be deployed on a battlefield alongside traditional conventional weapons, adding significantly more destructive power to traditional military formations. Given that North Korea is technologically far behind its rivals, this makes military sense. Such ‘tactical’ or battlefield nukes help level the […]

The post Why North Korea Wants Battlefield Nuclear Weapons appeared first on 19FortyFive.

As the war on terror went off the rails in the last two decades, calls for the US to show greater restraint in its foreign policy grew. One hears such language regularly now from both US political parties. Crucially, however, greater caution in US foreign policy need not translate into abandoning Ukraine to be slowly […]

The post U.S. Foreign Policy Restraint Doesn’t Mean Dumping Ukraine appeared first on 19FortyFive.

As the Ukraine war grinds into its fifth month, it is increasingly unclear what Russia could possibly win which might justify the massive costs it is incurring for its invasion. Conquest is supposed to pay, otherwise war is irrational. Yet after just a few months, it is obvious that a cost-benefit analysis of the war is negative and […]

The post The Ukraine War Is Bleeding Russia Dry appeared first on 19FortyFive.

US and South Korean intelligence now strongly suspect another nuclear weapons test by North Korea will occur soon. This would be North Korea’s seventh nuclear test; the first was in 2006. By now, Pyongyang probably has around fifty nuclear warheads (estimates do vary), plus missiles of various ranges on which to put them. That includes […]

The post What To Do If North Korea Tests a Nuclear Weapon Again appeared first on 19FortyFive.

The last few weeks have seen the rise of ‘Ukraine fatigue.’ Early expectations were that Russia would win the war quickly. The Western debate was initially whether we should support an insurgency. Then came a burst of enthusiasm that Russia might lose. This is fading now. The conflict seems to be settling into a war of attrition. Russia is making […]

The post Give Ukraine a Chance to Win appeared first on 19FortyFive.

The Great U.S.-China Trade De-Linkage Coming Soon? U.S. President Joseph Biden went to East Asia last week, and his trip was broadly successful. Biden’s top priority was to roll back the anxiety in the region caused by Donald Trump. The former president disliked U.S. alliances, and he sought to dramatically lift allied contributions for U.S. basing. […]

The post War With China Would Be A Disaster. But Trade De-Linkage Seems Inevitable appeared first on 19FortyFive.

U.S. President Joseph Biden has returned from his trip to East Asia, where he made visits to South Korea and Japan. He met South Korea’s new president and Japan’s prime minister. These talks focused respectively on North Korea and China. Biden’s comment about defending Taiwan attracted all the media attention, but this trip actually went […]

The post Biden’s Asia Trip: Was It a a Success or a Failure? appeared first on 19FortyFive.