Russia is desperate to find a gimmicky definition of “victory” to end what has become a quagmire in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion expecting a quick victory, akin to his Crimea land grab in 2014. A much-hyped Russian military modernization probably fed his belief this was achievable.
Russian Lancet Drone Attack on Ukraine
Instead, Ukraine rebuffed Russia’s initial spearheads by the end of March 2022. It then beat back Russia’s more focused effort in the Donbas in late spring and early summer. It now appears that Ukraine has fought off yet another major Russian offensive this year. Ukraine also launched two major offensives in 2022, rolling back around 40% of Russian territorial gains. It will probably launch another offensive this year.
In short, Russia has made almost no forward progress since its initial surge in February 2022. Russia will not lose outright so long as it continues to devote resources to the war — much like the U.S. in the Vietnam war, it can hold the line so long as it continues to fight. But indecisive, open-ended fighting is expensive, and it is not clear how it leads to victory, which is defined as a termination of the war on terms broadly favorable to Russia.
How to Get Out of an Unwinnable War in Ukraine
With Russia unable to beat Ukraine decisively on the battlefield, Putin has cast around for some quick means to break the strategic stalemate and end the conflict. His nuclear saber-rattling is the most obvious method. He hopes to scare off Ukraine’s Western backers, pushing an underequipped Ukraine to concede. This has failed though, likely because no one really believes Putin would risk a nuclear war over a limited conflict. He has also bet on Chinese assistance. Indeed, were China to openly support his war, Putin might get the decisive military victory he seeks. But China is too trade-dependent to risk an open breach with the West.
So the newest idea is to simply declare victory around the current line of control — the front line between the two militaries. Ideally, this would place the moral onus of continuing the war on the Ukrainians. Russia would declare war over, its goals met. It would offer to withdraw some of its forces in return for Ukrainian recognition of its conquests.
This is unlikely to work. Ukrainian public opinion support for the war is high. Its leadership is unlikely to simply accept the current line of control as its new border with Russia. The West, deeply wary of allowing Russia to unilaterally redraw national borders, will also probably reject this proposal as a gimmick.
Russia may hunker down behind that line, but Ukraine is likely to constantly probe and pick at that line for weaknesses. This would require Russia to keep a large military presence both in occupied territories and along the front. Declaring the war over only makes sense if the other side agrees. Ukraine clearly does not. Just because Russia has exhausted its ability to take more Ukrainian territory does not mean Ukraine or its partners will accept the status quo. The expected Ukrainian spring offensive will likely go forward.
Ukraine Not Losing is Good Enough
Russia’s desperate effort to wind down the war illustrates Putin’s quandary. War is expensive, and Russia’s mid-size, corrupt, resource-dependent economy is not well contoured to support a long war of attrition, especially against the far wealthier Western coalition supporting Ukraine. Russia has lost a surprising amount of equipment in the war and has taken to using armored vehicles from decades ago. It also lacks the computer technology to produce enough smart weapons. It is becoming dependent on China, especially for trade. Its economy has contracted under sanctions, and it will probably keep shrinking if the war drags on indefinitely. NATO has found new purpose and expanded, worsening Russia’s defense environment.
The gains for all those costs have been negligible. Russia has partially occupied several eastern Ukrainian oblasts which are now devastated and depopulated. Much of the world will not accept their annexation. Economic growth will not return to these spaces until the war ends. They, like the continuing war, will be a permanent drain on the Russian economy.
Putin can force the war on his population given the power of the repressive apparatus. But more than anything, he needs to win the war and go home to reconstitute his military and economy. The USSR experienced a long, bloody stalemate of minimal value in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The Ukraine war is evolving into the same pointless drain on national power for little obvious benefit. Hence all these gimmicky efforts to substitute for a battlefield victory that is now out of Russia’s grasp. By contrast, all Ukraine needs to do is hang on. As long as Ukraine is not defeated, it is winning and Putin is stuck.
Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RobertEdwinKelly.com) is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.
403Forbidden
April 19, 2023 at 9:43 am
The most practical, and in this case, the most natural method to bring the conflict to a SCREECHING HALT is use of tactical NUKES !!!
What can Biden and his underlings do in the event the neo-nazis get wiped out by a bevy of Russian tactical ???
WHAT CAN THEY DO !!! !!!
Nuclear bomb other nations in retaliation and thereby ignite global atmageddon is all what the miserable Biden can do.
Whodunnit
April 19, 2023 at 9:47 am
I cannot imagine that the Ukranians would accept that. Not after the almost unimaginable destruction of their towns and cities and loss of life. Putin and Russia need to pay and pay dearly.
Putin Apologist
April 19, 2023 at 10:04 am
We heard the same nonsense (“the Russian economy is in tatters”, “it will be Afghanistan 2.0″…) over Putin decision to enter the Syrian conflict on the opposite side of the US-led West.
Russia will not only prevail in Ukraine, as she did in Syria, she is prevailing in Ukraine.
Jim
April 19, 2023 at 10:16 am
Looking at the line of control, it has been relatively stable… and only considering territorial gains, the war can be seen as a stalemate.
However, Ukraine has “burned” through three “armies” (one in the first months of the war, one via the two offensives, and another during the Winter and defending Bakhmut).
All this Spring, the talk has been about Ukraine not having enough ammo and equipment to put together a Strike Force for the promised “Spring Offensive.”
Russian Strategy:
“Spoil” the line of control by putting stress up & down the front and increasing pressure on Bakhmut (the “sucking chest wound” of the Ukrainian army), and in this way make it hard for Ukraine to put together a Strike Force for offensive action.
The so-called “Spring Offensive” seems to be delayed either because of logistics issues or the weather.
The Trap:
Ukraine, desperate for an offensive… but stretched out too thin… puts together an offensive anyway because of political pressure… however the Strike Force is inadequate for the job @ hand (limited air support among other things).
The Offensive would require at least some massing of Ukrainian troops & equipment… and leaving fortified defensive positions and coming out into the open.
The Test:
Can Russia mount a strategic counter attack… this is a fast reaction, logistical maneuver to focus fire power on the offensive and wipe out the Ukrainian military formations when they are out in the open and the logistical umbilical cord can be “Cut,” the forces cut off from their logistical supply base and then annihilated.
If so, the much ballyhooed Ukrainian “Spring Offensive” could turn into a strategic, war ending defeat.
Should the offensive get wiped out, then Ukraine is in deep dodo!
Gary Jacobs
April 19, 2023 at 12:34 pm
Ukraine’s counter offensive[s] will proceed.
Russia knows its entire force is vulnerable, that’s one reason they are searching for a way to freeze in place.
They have also largely switched to defense everywhere but Bakhmut and Avdiivka. They are even digging trenches in Crimea.
Satellite images show a massive network of trenches and other defense throughout the south of Ukraine as well.
But Ukraine has been getting huge amounts of breach equipment and training. And for as much as Daniel Davis and others have noted that Ukraine does not have a large conventional air force, in fact Ukraine has been stockpiling massive amounts of FPV drones capable of carrying an RPG-7 warhead. Some estimates range up to 100,000 of them.
The Scalpel, made by UK based company called One Way Aerospace has a top speed of over 100km/h [60mph] and a range of ‘more than 10km.’ It is highly maneuverable.
Perhaps the feature that jumped out to me most was the fact the Scalpel has ‘terminal homing’ ability.
A drone with terminal homing ability can maintain course and direction as it makes its final approach on the target and detonate automatically.
As long as the drone operator gets the drone ‘close enough’ to a designated target and is on course to hit, if the operator loses control over the drone due to signal jamming, the drone takes over. The terminal homing drone will continue flying to the target and self detonate.
Some of these are already wreaking havoc on Russians in trenches. Expect to see swarms of them targeting Russia’s trench network in the south.
Add in the other longer range drones, HIMARS, JDAM-ER, and GLSDB…and Ukraine has a pretty good facsimile of precision air support. Especially in the short distance from the front to Melitopol.
As well, IF the Ukrainians can take Tokmak in the south, the Russians are in deeeeep trouble down there. They know it, and they have heavily fortified a ring around the city.
The Russians have proven to be incapable of supplying troops long distance by road and truck. Russia is reliant on rail transport for supply.
A marine I know shared his thoughts on a potential Ukrainian move into the south, emphasizing they would ‘likely attempt to use the Molochna river to shield their left flank in advancing towards Melitopol’.
In such an offensive, advancing predominantly west of the Molochna river, the natural way to counterattack would be from the East, to cut off the Ukrainian front line of supply.
If Ukraine captures or surrounds Tokmak, there’s basically no way to get supplies from the East for a Russian counter offensive without first recapturing Tokmak. Russia could no longer get supplies or reinforcements from the East to support Melitopol, at least without making a 100km overland trek by truck.
And we all should recall how that went the last time the Russians tried that.
But for those unaware or for those prone to be Putiniastas that ignore relevant facts [like Jim]… in the Battle of Kiev, many Russian trucks suffered from poor maintenance and suffered numerous breakdowns.
Russia’s overland supply lines broke down and Russia was defeated in the Battle of Kiev. Russia’s logistics are nearly entirely reliant on railroads except very short distances.
What that means: capture Tokmak and Ukraine can basically count on near zero counter attacks from the East, except directly at Tokmak.
Russia would basically be walled off from using any forces east of Tokmak in any other way.
This whole analysis would work in the reverse as well.
If Ukraine chose to attack East of Melitopol and make Berdyansk and Mariupol the primary objectives of the initial Spring Offensive, capturing Tokmak would effectively wall off any counterattacks from Russia from the West of the offensive,
Tokmak is essentially the lynchpin that holds the Western and Eastern wings of the Russian army together. Capture Tokmak, and the two wings fall apart into 2 independent armies no longer capable of supporting each other directly.
Tokmak may be one of the single most important strategic positions in all of Russian occupied Southern Ukraine.
Just about every military man I spoke to said that if Ukraine does go south, it’s likely to be to Melitopol and then west to take back the ZNPP. Ukraine would also have fire support from their troops on the other side of the Dnipro river.
Then can move to block the two skinny land routes from Crimea into Kherson and Zap.; and cut off the water from the canal. Then they can send the bulk of their offensive maneuver forces to the east.
Jacksonian Libertarian
April 19, 2023 at 1:31 pm
Prediction: Having forced Russia to retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, Ukraine will force Russia out of the rest of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, cutting the land bridge to Crimea, and besieging Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts.
Russian territorial gains from the 2022 invasion will be negated as if they had never happened. But, Ukraine has been uplifted and is for logistical purposes now a Western ally. A Marshall Plan for Ukraine’s economic development is likely.
While the Russian military has been reduced by at least 50% in material, and prestige. The Russian Economy has been smashed, with western businesses gone, foreign military equipment sales defunct, with only the oil business remaining (if the US starts fracking again?). Russia also has to fear a Chinese invasion to take the resource rich Fareast. Authoritarians betray each other at the first opportunity.
Paul
April 19, 2023 at 1:50 pm
Baloney
critic
April 19, 2023 at 2:22 pm
This article could only be written by a complete idiot, fooled by their own government … or just getting paid from them … Keep believing and following your shepherd and every time he stumbles on the ladder – just clap your hands – bosses love idiots 😉
Karl Christensen
April 19, 2023 at 6:19 pm
This is a decent article but it is too focused on eastern Ukraine. This war is about much more than Ukraine; it is about the future of Russia, whether it will be a force in international politics or a backwater (as Old Muscovy was in the days of Ivan the Terrible). The current Russian leadership who call this current conflict ‘existential’ are absolutely correct. That they are brandishing their nuclear capabilities tell us that they are terrified for their future. So, the author’s statement in the above article, “The Ukraine war is evolving into the same pointless drain on national power for little obvious benefit,” is completely incorrect. At the center of this conflict is an existential threat to Russia–Team Biden is intent on achieving the dissolution of Russia in what appears to be a proxy war.
From the beginning I saw this as as a very shrewd maneuver by Team Biden. So far, it is going pretty well for the US/NATO; in contrast, it has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia. Putin is trapped in the swamp and, as the author suggests, there is no easy way out–this is exactly what the US wanted.
Jon
April 19, 2023 at 9:45 pm
Putin can declare victory and withdraw, any time he likes. He maintains sufficient control over Russian media and social control to make the message stick: Russia has achieved a great victory; Russia has accomplished its war aims; Ukraine has been taught a severe lesson; Russia’s security has been reestablished and NATO will not soon make the same mistake…. There’s no end to all of Russia’s victories. Then Putin can have a parade through Red Square with whatever remains of his seventy year old collection of tanks.
pagar
April 19, 2023 at 10:32 pm
The campaign to de-nazify kyiv is totally doable and winnable if only putin is determined never to frolic and cavort with the west.
Unfortunately, putin is extremely undecided and totally indecisive.
Putin has failed to retaliate for the sept 2022 nord stream blasts and instead still very buddy-buddy with US on the barely-alive and rapidly decaying ISS project in space.
To win in ukraine, somebody must therefore plant a steel dagger into putin’s backside or better, put a bullet through his groin area.
Victory will flash overhead at speed of light. Job d-o-n-e.
Webej
April 19, 2023 at 11:34 pm
The article proceeds in terms of completely speculative and unsourced assumptions about Russian aims, plans, desperate wish to freeze the conflict, etc. etc. None are based on Russian declarations, all of which are studiously ignored.
Great to see some people write comments longer than the article itself.
Zloj Natovetz
April 20, 2023 at 11:44 am
Never in a million years will Ukraine accept this, nor will the West. Russian troops need to be destroyed on Ukrainian soil, and all territories given back to Ukraine with reparations and compensation. Russian needs to be isolated until the change of government – putin needs to be removed – by force or otherwise. If russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, Russia needs to be decapitated by the West and all its military needs to be destroyed on russian territory. The end for them is near!
Tallifer
April 20, 2023 at 1:28 pm
Both a good, fact-based article by Robert Kelly and a good, informative long comment by Gary Jacobs.
493Forbidden dies inna drone strike
April 20, 2023 at 1:39 pm
403Forbidden is a drunken idiot. If putler even flinches, Russia will be eviscerated from the face of the earth. At this point, the Belgian Air Force alone could erase ruzzia. Quit being a moron
Tamerlane
April 20, 2023 at 6:53 pm
Anti-Americans like “493Forbidden dies inna drone strike” God-willing will fail. Anything approaching his wet-dream here will result in the deaths of hundreds of millions of Americans. Once again, the warhawks have forgotten nothing and learned nothing as they blunder forward towards another WWI against America’s interests.
Jdd
April 20, 2023 at 8:15 pm
What bs. Putins plan is to destroy Ukraine’s military and bring Ukraine to bargaining table where it will dictate terms.
Andrew P
April 21, 2023 at 12:03 am
Ukraine is clearly going ahead with its spring offensive. Since Ukraine is running low on vital supplies, it must wage that offensive with everything it got in one big push. The question is – will the Ukrainians be forced to concentrate their forces enough that it becomes worthwhile for the Russians to use tactical nukes? And if the Russians do so, will it work? Nukes are no panacea and do not guarantee victory by any means – but if Ukraine launches a winning offensive I believe that Russia will use them.
And the worst outcome for Russia is to use tactical nukes and still lose.
jeff check
April 21, 2023 at 5:16 am
Your main premise is not correct, if Russia declares they are just going to hold their positions that is no different than them trying to take over Kiev.. and they can never be trusted again. the only way out is to fully implode Russia.
Tamerlane
April 21, 2023 at 1:08 pm
Jeff Cheek: imploding Russia will result in the deaths of hundreds of millions of Americans. That’s what Ukraine is worth to you? Yikes.
Rick
April 21, 2023 at 4:14 pm
Why not wait Vlad out…he’s getting very good at bombing his own cities.