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Are You Willing to Die for Taiwan?

Washington should not turn its support for Taiwan into a trial of military force on the battlefield. A conventional Sino-American conflict would be terrible.

F-35
PHILIPPINE SEA (Feb. 9, 2022) An F-35B Lightning II fighter aircraft from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) launches from the forward-deployed amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6) during joint Exercise Noble Fusion. Noble Fusion demonstrates that Navy and Marine Corps forward-deployed stand-in naval expeditionary forces can rapidly aggregate Marine Expeditionary Unit/Amphibious Ready Group teams at sea, along with a carrier strike group, as well as other joint force elements and allies, in order to conduct lethal sea-denial operations, seize key maritime terrain, guarantee freedom of movement, and create advantage for US, partner and allied forces. Naval Expeditionary forces conduct training throughout the year, in the Indo-Pacific, to maintain readiness. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Thomas B. Contant) 220209-N-BX791-1299

The world loves America. More accurately, people everywhere love living off the US. They want aid programs, military alliances, trade preferences, security guarantees, and more. Some even want Washington to go to war when they won’t, which is often.

The Case for Taiwan and American Intervention

Almost charming is a British journalist writing in a British publication telling Americans to prepare for battle with the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan. So said the Financial Times’ Gideon Rachman. He recently insisted that economic, strategic, and political considerations “make a compelling case for the US and its allies to protect Taiwan.”

Yet he must know that the allies won’t act, at least militarily. They have forever fallen short on defending themselves in Europe, and have even been retreating from their promises to do more in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The likelihood that the same countries would send any military forces, let alone in meaningful numbers, to challenge Beijing in its own geographic neighborhood is infinitesimal.

Consider the embarrassing 2021 voyage of Germany’s Bayern. “The dispatch of this frigate to the Indo-Pacific region shows Germany’s commitment to our shared values,” opined Berlin’s top uniformed official, Eberhard Zorn, even as his government asked China for a friendly port visit to Shanghai—which was summarily rejected. Germany will have a tough enough time making its own forces battle worthy for Europe, let alone creating a force capable of challenging the People’s Republic of China.

That disappointing reality probably increases Rachman’s enthusiasm for US intervention in a Taiwan crisis. If Washington doesn’t act, Europe certainly won’t do so. However, first he should explain what his country would do to help America. And what the rest of Europe would do.

This question is especially important since a Sino-US conflict would be more like past “big wars,” such as Vietnam and Korea, than the Global War on Terrorism conflicts such as Iraq and Afghanistan, with the added potential for nuclear escalation. Indeed, Lyle Goldstein of Defense Priorities warns that one or both sides might feel pressure to use nuclear weapons.

Anyone refusing to commit their nation’s future and people’s lives to a China fight has no credibility in urging Washington to wage such a fight. Nevertheless, assume that the frumpy 60-year-old Rachman would suit up for the first British assault on Beijing. He made three basic arguments for America to risk war several thousand miles from home, roughly 100 miles off China’s coast, comparable to Cuba’s distance from America.

His first concern was political freedom. For instance, he wrote, Taiwan, as “a thriving and prosperous society, is living proof that Chinese culture is completely compatible with democracy. Its existence keeps alive an alternative vision for how China itself might one day be run.” Maybe, but today, at least, few Chinese appear to look at Taiwan as a political model. Moreover, most Chinese who I have met believe that Taiwan is part of China and should return to Beijing’s rule, a sentiment held by otherwise liberal-minded students as well as Chinese Communist Party apparatchiks.

Rachman also worried that allowing Beijing to entrench “autocracy … across the Chinese-speaking world would have bleak political implications for the world.” Yet the widespread democratic retreat has little relation to China. Moreover, backsliding by India, Pakistan, Nigeria, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico probably matter much more in their respective regions than anything China has done or likely will do.

In any case, neither of these arguments are serious casus belli. A negative impact on democracy would be worrisome, but would not justify waging a destructive war, which likely would have far more harmful impacts on democracy. As Randolph Bourne famously warned, “war is the health of the state,” illustrated in recent years by the rise of the expansive national security state. Taiwan likely would be effectively destroyed even if nominally victorious. A conflict could not help but adversely affect America’s other friends in East Asia. Even if the US prevailed, Beijing likely would prepare for a rematch, leaving the region unstable and endangered.

Rachman’s second claim is that if the PRC seized Taiwan “then US power in the region would suffer a huge blow. Faced with a prospect of a new hegemonic power in the Indo-Pacific, the region’s countries would respond” by accommodating China. So far, however, most of the countries in the region, even the Philippines of late, have responded to Beijing’s growing strength by increasing their military capabilities and neighborly cooperation. Although the PRC is far stronger than any one of its maritime neighbors, they can mimic its reliance on anti-access/area denial strategies. The possibility of friendly proliferation also could create a substantial deterrent against Beijing. In any case, while “accommodation” might be seen as undesirable, in most cases war would still be far worse.

Finally, Rachman pointed to “the implications of Chinese dominance of the Indo-Pacific would also be global, since the region accounts for around two-thirds of the world’s population and of gross domestic product.” He is particularly concerned about Taiwan’s world-spanning semiconductor chip industry. Yet so far the PRC reigns supreme economically, not militarily. To the good, greater regional wealth will enable China’s economic partners to assert and defend their interests too. Taiwan’s dominant semiconductor is unlikely to survive a war, and the product can be manufactured elsewhere with sufficient investment, the argument behind the $53 billion 2022 CHIPS and Science Act.

Is War the Only Choice?

It is one thing to recognize challenges and threats. It is quite another to go to war over them, especially when there has been no serious discussion about the issue with the American people. Rachman urges “sticking up for Taiwan,” but military action is not the only means to do so.

The outcome of a Sino-American war is difficult to predict. However, most every study and game predict enormous human and materiel losses. The PRC has several advantages, such as geography. China likely would enjoy air superiority, an unsettling factor for the US, which for the last century has expected to rule the skies. Without Japan’s willingness to turn its territory into a missile pin cushion the US would have difficulty deploying sufficient forces nearby. China need only concentrate on East Asia, while Washington, convinced that it must continue to defend the entire world, dissipates its military force.

Finally, Beijing’s interest is much greater than America’s. Washington’s claims are largely derivative and modest, that, for instance, if China defeated Taiwan, the former would be better positioned if it chose to attack more of its neighbors. In contrast, the Chinese people have two direct, compelling reasons to care about the island. First is nationalism, the belief that Taiwan has been wrongly stripped from Chinese control. Second is strategic. The PRC no more wants American or allied bases on Taiwan than the US wanted Soviet bases in Cuba. That doesn’t mean it is impossible to deter China, but it would be very difficult to do so in this case.

Ultimately, the US government, and particularly the American people, need to decide what is worth “sticking up for” with military means. Nearly half of Americans believe China-Taiwan tensions are a serious problem for the US and would back Washington’s involvement. However, most have little to no idea what a Sino-American conflict would entail. Debating whether America’s interests warrant war is far more important than, say, discussing the propriety of “strategic ambiguity,” by which Washington refuses to publicly admit that it has decided to go to war if the PRC invades.

Sometimes war proves necessary, even inevitable. However, those occasions are extraordinarily rare. Conflicts usually turn out much worse than expected. Before loosing the Dog of War, US policymakers should carefully and coldly evaluate the costs and risks versus the likely benefits.

Taiwan is an attractive friend and deserves to decide its own political future. The only stable, peaceful solution is mutual forbearance, with the US, China, and Taiwan eschewing threats and avoiding confrontation. America and its allies should assist Taipei against any attempt at coercive reunification, selling weapons for defense and developing a credible sanctions package in response to malign Chinese activity.

However, Washington should not turn its support for Taiwan into a trial of military force on the battlefield. A conventional Sino-American conflict would be terrible. A nuclear Sino-American war would be catastrophic. Not every good thing on earth is worth a war. No matter what foreign journalists and analysts might tell the US.     

Author Biography                          

Now a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of Foreign Follies: America’s New Global Empire.

Written By

Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, specializing in foreign policy and civil liberties. He worked as special assistant to President Ronald Reagan and editor of the political magazine Inquiry. He writes regularly for leading publications such as Fortune magazine, National Interest, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Times.

26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. 404NotFound

    April 22, 2023 at 9:33 am

    The island is very strictly none of washington’s business. Fullstop.

    Would uncle sam tolerate someone else having a say on puerto rico.

    (PR, not far from lovely paradise-on-Earth haiti, once had a powerful independent movement which US authorities successfully ran it into the ground in late 70s and early 80s.)

    Or would biden tolerate russia having a stand about diego garcia.

    (The ICC sometime in 2019 or thereabouts ruled diego garcia rightfully belongs to mauritius despite being seized previously through forceful eviction by white supremacy colonialists.)

    However, washington doesn’t subscribe to international law rulings or rules-based conduct if they aren’t aligned to its national advantage, and so the DoD & state dept along with their minions will surely resort to war over taiwan, possibly as early as 2025.

    That’s a harsh reality of life that can’t be avoided at all due to great US propensity to forward-base or deploy its most advanced weapons systems right at the front gates of rival powers.

    In or by 2025 or thereabouts, US pacific forces will be adequately equipped with hypersonic systems, thus a massive chance of great mischief over taiwan, initially (& innocently) involving a sub, a aegis warship, an EP-3 spyplane, or a dragonlady u-2 recce craft, or a B737 radar sniffer aircraft, followed by an incident, then open military confrontation a la cuba ’62.

    Thus, the PLA needs to be FULLY aware of the double game being slyly hatched by biden and co, and avoid getting pulled into a ukro-type quagmire.

    Once push dissolves into shove, the PLA must smash all the forward defenses (most especially the illegal PAVE PAWS radar site on mt leshan) to smithereens on the spot.

    YOU NEED TO GO STRAIGHT FOR THE JUGULAR. Never, never, never resort to play-play with double dealing humans.

  2. Jim Higgins

    April 22, 2023 at 9:36 am

    The author would have cheerfully consigned Czechoslovakia to the Germans with the same “arguments”.

  3. David Chang

    April 22, 2023 at 10:21 am

    God bless people in the world.

    People who say that Taiwan province is the most important to the world are promoting to worship Taiwan. They do not admit the Republic of China, but admit Socialism China. So they should confess their sin and repent to God.

    In the first half of World War 2, people think the Communist Party is their friend, why do they think the Communist Party is their enemy now? So people should think about their wrong statements with the opposite question when they incite the United States to join nuclear war.

    But when people in America have to against nuclear war, people in Europe, Asia, Australia, Central and South America, and Canada, will not help people in America and join the international nuclear war. Moreover, most people in the world will not confess and repent to God.

    God bless America.

  4. ericji

    April 22, 2023 at 10:23 am

    We go to war if/when US citizens CLAMOR for it. They’ll clamor for it when our existence is truly threatened. Then we go to war to win. Otherwise it’s a waste of our young women and men because if we’re not threatened enough to go all out for victory we’ll eventually tire & pull out.

  5. GhostTomahawk

    April 22, 2023 at 11:08 am

    The people of the US are mindless drones. Our state media tells them lies and they gobble it up. The US military is a complete joke. It’s been playing dress up and care bear games for years all the while hemorrhaging treasury at a rate never seen before.

    With that being said. War is a relic. China has been washing economic war on America and winning. They have been bleeding us dry for 3 decades. If America is compelled to wage war on China then look no further than a full embargo. No food. No trade. Full pull out. Let’s see big tech big pharma etc choose sides.

  6. Jack

    April 22, 2023 at 11:42 am

    I’m sure the Chinese would be willing to lose 500,000 of their troops to gain control of Taiwan…. Will the US be willing to lose 100,000 of their troops to save Taiwan…. I don’t think so….

  7. Jim

    April 22, 2023 at 11:44 am

    The United States’ official policy vis-vis Taiwan is the One China policy.

    The One China policy has been the U. S. policy since World War Two, and the Cairo Conference in 1943.

    That has never changed in all the years since.

    Of course, the One China policy was reaffirmed in the early 1970’s when Nixon opened diplomatic relations with China and in 1979 when the Carter administration solidified the diplomatic relations with China and Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act.

    In that act the One China policy was recognized by Congress (although, with some vague language which gives the U. S. some wiggle room to insist Taiwan should not be militarily coerced by China).

    The Chinese see Taiwan as a province of China, much like the U. S. sees California as part of the U. S.

    (Obviously, American citizens don’t see the equivalence between California and Taiwan, but that’s how Chinese see it.)

    The Chinese don’t want war over Taiwan… they’re willing to have a gradual rapprochement…

    And, that interaction has been going on, Taiwan & China have robust economic & cultural interactions, roughly 40% of Taiwanese recognize Taiwan is part of China.

    The KMT, the opposition political party in Taiwan, recognizes Taiwan is part of China and is poised to possibly win Taiwan’s presidency.

    What happens then?

    War against China over Taiwan is stupid & dangerous.

    The real “line in the sand” is the South China Sea, which China has taken by Right of Conquest against International Law and the U. N. Charter.

    The South China Sea is America’s high ground because recently China has wrapped itself in the U. N. flag and claimed fealty to International Law & the U. N. Charter… this is for consumption of neutral nation-states… that is where China’s international diplomacy is focused on.

    This is the front to expose China’s less than benign ambitions regarding the South China Sea… and the region in general.

    (Evidence is available that below the seafloor huge, massive hydrocarbons, oil & gas, deposits exist. That is the real reason China has built up coral atolls into military air strips and claims to have sovereign territorial control over almost all the South China Sea, infringing on other countries Exclusive Economic Zones, as provided by the U. N. Charter & International Law.)

    Be forewarned, China will, guaranteed, go to war against the United States if it feels the U. S. has somehow reneged on the One China policy.

    A much better strategy than starting a war against China over Taiwan is forcing China into binding arbitration over the South China Sea with the possibility of war against the United States if China does not agree to binding arbitration.

    (If push comes to shove, my hunch is China would agree to binding arbitration because war over the South China Sea would expose China as the aggressor as they are already in violation of International Law on this issue.)

    War against China… a dead loser… and stupid, too.

  8. Bob Roemer

    April 22, 2023 at 12:35 pm

    IMO, it’s like playing Jenga with Jumanji rules … when the tower falls, it’s “Game Over” … BTW, there’s no choice to play, or to abstain … and when the tower does fall, there’ll be no winner !!!

  9. Jim

    April 22, 2023 at 1:00 pm

    Believe it or not, the author downplays the possibility of General War against China should the United States renege or denounce the One China policy.

    The scenario:

    Assume the United States goes to war over Taiwan (there are various triggering possibilities), three or four U. S. naval destroyers (tin cans) are sunk with loss of life, that puts the U. S. on the brink of going bigger, the political pressure on Congress & the President would increase dramatically.

    Should a U. S. aircraft carrier be sunk with 5,000 men & women aboard, the political pressure would take on dimensions for total conventional war hard to imagine (likely a Declaration of War from Congress, signed off by the President.)

    Even more dangerous, expect mirror treatment from China: any attack on the Chinese mainland would be responded to by China by hitting the U. S. mainland in a similar manner or extent as the bombing on the Chinese mainland.

    Any attack on the U. S. mainland would result in a Declaration of War from Congress… and here we go into the Sino-American War of the Early 21st Century.

    Some would call it World War Three.

    Once there, it’s a “Coin Toss” as to whether it would go to Nuclear War.

    Nuclear War is MAD, any person suggesting, somehow, it would be limited and the U. S. would come out on top is stark raving mad and should be put into a straight jacket and thrown in a loony bin.

    No [email protected]#%t, Sherlock, but trust me… there will be those voices… if we are in the middle of a full-on conventional war, who will go to the President, suggesting such an action… especially if it becomes apparent the United States is losing the war.

    And, expect similar voices in China, from the strong faction in the Chinese military who deeply want to punch Uncle Sam in the nose, and right historic wrongs, as they see it, going to their President whispering, “We can win a limited nuclear war.”

    Such is humanity…

    There are always people on the edge of power who are insane, trust me.

  10. Simon Beerstecher

    April 22, 2023 at 1:02 pm

    First Taiwan then…?American interests will fall like a pack of cards,Taiwan is the gateway to the American Pacific coast.China can effectively be bottled up with Taiwan in the Western Sphere of influence….not to mention the fact that it manufactures 85% of the worlds high end nano chips crucial to the global economy.I have read stuff from Bandow before and wonder how much influence the Chinese have over him?His geostrategic sense is very limited to almost zero,I think his argument would lead to the USA being placed behind the Iron Curtain falling over much of the world today…and not our systemic adversaries.Controlling Taiwan gives us substantial skin in the game.

  11. Paul

    April 22, 2023 at 1:57 pm

    Now do Ukraine

  12. jeff

    April 22, 2023 at 3:13 pm

    A Tawain analogy to California is a nonstarter. California is one of the fifty states and part of the USA. Tawain is a separate entity from China that manages its own international affairs. China sought a peaceful reunification of Hong Kong and look where it got the people who were promised autonomy.

    As for the US walking away from a Chinese takeover of Tawain you better be ready for the rest of Asia to bow to the Chinese because they will then know that the USA is not an ally and they better take terms.

  13. CRS, DrPH

    April 22, 2023 at 3:40 pm

    USA needs to re-shore industrial production away from PRC, once and for all. Considering moving assets like i-Phone manufacturing from the slave camps of China to highly automated factories on Taiwan.

    There is a lot of ambiguity for China, and they don’t know how things would go if they invade Taiwan. I still suspect that Taiwan has a nuclear warhead in hiding. It would only take one to decapitate PRC leadership.

  14. David

    April 22, 2023 at 4:00 pm

    it’s not about if you must die for Taiwan, is about what’s the next after Taiwan invasion? Senkaki islands? maybe attack Guam, what about Russia? yesterday was Georgia, Moldavia and Chechenia… today is Ukraine, what’s the next? Letonia, Estonia? this is how dictatorships acts… they will not stop with Taiwan and Ukraine… Iran won’t stop with Israel…

  15. Jim

    April 22, 2023 at 4:01 pm

    Those who invite war with China are intellectual fools or warmongers… with no real sense of reality… militarily or otherwise.

    Only idiots would listen to them.

    Remember, warmongers always have a screw loose or two.

    But they don’t know it… that’s what makes them dangerous to themselves and others… i.e., the rest of the American People.

    The warmonger’s reflex is always war.

    And they fail to learn any lessons from experience.

  16. Walker

    April 22, 2023 at 5:04 pm

    Jim, no one invites war. You are being intentionally obtuse. The question is what if war happens. Actually the question goes back further. Should we try to prevent a war? A war would have disastrous consequences whether the U.S. is involved or not. So it seems that we should work to make it unpalatable for China to attack Taiwan. But in so doing, if we fail and China attacks, it is likely that we get caught up in it. We have to either be ready for that where our brilliant Dougy here isn’t or we should just go ahead and tell China it can have Taiwan.

    Has MAGA made you all a stupidly ignorant, or have you all always been so absolutely moronic? History has proven on every occasion that isolationism doesn’t work.

  17. Jim

    April 22, 2023 at 7:58 pm

    Waller, you want a bet, nation-states invite war all the time with stupid moves… you know all about that.

    Hell, a lot of historians suggest that’s exactly what happened in World War I.

    Invite war because of hubris, pride, aggression, any number of things.

    And, given your sensitivity to the concept… and your ideas on geopolitics and diplomatic relations, you would definitely invite war… walk us right into war.

    Please, Walker, you only make yourself look stupid and prove my point in spades.

    What’s your measurements… we’ll need them for the straight jacket… Bedlam or Bellevue… your choice.

  18. David Chang

    April 22, 2023 at 9:48 pm

    God bless people in the world.

    Jim talks about the most important question, the safety of people in the world.

    The Democratic Party is the same as Communist Party and Nazi, because they don’t obey Ten Commandments, they incite socialism warfare to cause inflation and more murder, and they incite Taiwan province independent war, just like the independent war in Israel and mainland China and Vietnam.

    Socialism warfare is atheism, so Democratic Party and Communist Party and Nazi teach people to worship democracy and science by believing liberty and equality.

    But some people of the Republican Party also promote atheism as Democratic Party, so the Republican Party help the Democratic Party and Communist Party to promote Taiwan province independent war. Republican Party don’t understand that may make USN 7th fleet to be sunk in the Taiwan Strait, because Taiwan province independent war is one of the reasons that most of people in Taiwan province oppose the United States, but the defense minister of the Republic of China insist on the official name of China, the R.O.C..

    If the U.S. Republican Party think about this important question again, Rep. McCarthy will understand why most reporters do not write on his policy against the China Communist Party, but write on Rep. McCarthy’s policy as a policy against China.

    If the U.S. Republican Party obey Ten Commandments, they will understand the meaning of one China policy is to worship God, China and the U.S. under God, just like Abraham Accords.

    If people in China obey Ten Commandments, people in the East Coast of America will not be attacked with CBRN, then USN CSG and CVBG will not move into the Taiwan Strait, a trap set by several atheism parties in one-China.

    God bless USMC and USN,
    God bless America.

  19. David Chang

    April 22, 2023 at 10:31 pm

    God bless people in the world.

    The sin of Democratic Party is opposing Ten Commandments and making policies of socialism and evolution. Like Communist Party and Nazis, they teach people to worship democracy and science.

    The Democratic Party implements socialism with two policies. The first is to incite war, the Democratic Party helps the Communist Party in China, causing the Communist Party to occupy mainland China, then provokes the Communist Party in Vietnam, causing the Vietnam War. The second is to make inflation. So these two policies are mutual causality, and will cumulatively cause total war and destroy the nations of the world.

    Therefore, the cooperation of the Democratic Party and the Communist Party cause the socialism war in Korea and Vietnam. Moreover, socialism war in Afghan and Iraq and Ukraine also resulted from the cooperation of the Democratic Party and the Communist Party in the first half of World War II.

    So we are in the second half of World War II, but we don’t have enough soldiers, weapons, and currency for The Unified Command Plan. All Democratic Parties in the world still make inflation to delay the building and maintenance of the Army, Navy, and Airforce, so they keep helping the Communist Party.

    Another morality issue is that some people don’t think about the same dilemma as the Vietnam War. If the U.S. military shall help people in the Republic of China, they should confirm that the people in the Republic of China obey Ten Commandments and oppose atheism, such as socialism, evolution, and liberation theology.

    God bless America.

  20. Arash

    April 22, 2023 at 11:35 pm

    Taiwan belongs to China. Period.

    There is not a single country in the world, not UK and not US that considers Taiwan to be a separate country.
    Principle of Territorial integrity dictates that Chinese people decide for themselves how their territory is going to be governed. If that means settling the matter with force, so be it.

  21. Andrew M Winter

    April 23, 2023 at 9:10 am

    You people are missing the picture entirely. It is not, nor has it ever been about Taiwan.

    The US went to war with Great Britain and won the American War of Independence over a set of causes. All of them revolved around “Freedom of the Seas”. Americans wanted to trade outside the British Colonial System. Britain tried to reign that in. So America became a pile of colonial Smugglers and Pirates.

    The US Constitution stipulates the maintenance of a NAVY because of Freedom of the Seas. One of Americas very first moves on the international scene was the invasion of Tripoli over, guess what, Freedom of the Seas.

    The defense of Taiwan is about Freedom of the Seas folks. You do NOT give an INCH to any nation or Non-State Actor that threatens that.

    So get off of this idea that the China/Taiwan mess somehow exists in a vacuum all by itself with no connection to anything else on Earth. It does NOT.

    The straights of Taiwan are International Waters. China invading Taiwan, if they are that stupid, is about restricting those international waters. That cannot be allowed with serious detriment.

  22. David Chang

    April 23, 2023 at 9:24 am

    God bless people in the world.

    Arash is wrong.

    The Taiwan Strait War has always belonged to China, because it is socialism warfare from Europe to China since 1847. Taiwan province and mainland China are one-China, but the Japan socialism army occupied Taiwan Province after 1895, then the U.S. Democratic Party and Communist Party and Japan socialism Army think murder and robbery as reasons for legal acquisition of property.

    According to the legal opinion of the Democratic Party and Communist Party, Socialism Russia military occupation of Crimea is also the legal behavior and Russia acquired ownership of Crimea. So Democratic Party and Communist Party are cooperating to incite the socialism war.
    And CSIS and CNAS continue to promote atheism and incite total war.

    God bless America.

  23. Joe Comment

    April 23, 2023 at 10:25 am

    In the Mainland, the “one China policy” means the government on the Mainland is the rightful ruler of Taiwan. On Taiwan, the “one China policy” means the government on Taiwan is the rightful ruler of the Mainland. In the US, the “one China policy” means we understand people in the Mainland and on Taiwan want to unite, and if it happens peacefully and willingly, we will respect that.

    You’ll notice that these are all different ideas. What should we do if someone starts a war over these differences? We don’t want anyone to do that. Should we announce that we won’t intervene if that happens? That would tempt the Mainland to attack, since it’s militarily much more powerful than Taiwan alone.

    If you advocate for the US to say it won’t intervene in Taiwan, you need to explain what we can do instead to effectively discourage the use of force there.

  24. James

    April 23, 2023 at 2:19 pm

    I haven’t seen anyone state the real reason why the US would and should go to war with China if they decide to invade Taiwan. It’s because Taiwan produces over 80% of the world’s microchips and an even higher percentage of the more advanced chips. China gaining control of the microchip industry would be completely unacceptable to the American people, it would allow China to at a whim cause a US economic depression or have you already forgotten what happened during COVID when we couldn’t buy appliances or vehicles? China deciding to embargo chips would be many times worse and would absolutely destroy the US economy. The US would never willingly allow any country to have that kind of power over it especially not an adversarial country that has used economic blackmail to get its way multiple times in just the last decade. Yes it would absolutely be worth the cost in blood to prevent this from happening.

  25. Simon Beerstecher

    April 24, 2023 at 5:40 am

    The USA needs to get off this ambiguity bs.Simple Taiwan is free,independant,democratic,supplies us with chips (and is therefore crucial to our industrial and economic well being and above all stops you (China) from further militarily dominating the Pacific.In particular our strategic Pacific Allies,Japan,S Korea,Australia and the Phillipines let alone our own West Coast all of this is up for play ,we will absolutely go to war to prevent your dictatorial and authoritarian warmongering nation , China from dominating us or for that matter the world,thank you and bg off!

  26. Roger Bacon

    May 4, 2023 at 4:38 pm

    If Taiwan is not an independent country then the country that has the best claim to it is Japan. China ceeded the island to Japan in the 1800’s at the end of the Sino-Japan war, even though the war had not involved the island. Japan kept ownership of the island until 1945 when the victorious powers forced Japan to give up large portions of it’s overseas territories. The island was returned to the nationalists which continue to control it today. The communists have no claim to it at all.

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