Ukraine War Ending: Putin Gets Wiped Out in a Coup?

Peter the Great, perhaps the most infamous Russian monarch who oversaw the Tsardom in the late 17^th-century to the early 18^th-century, was the last adult ruler in Russia to last more than 15 months consecutively without being overthrown by a coup, revolution or outright killed. The current Russian president Vladimir Putin has served continuously as president or prime minister since 1999 in over two decades of uncontested power. However, some analysts, industry experts and defectors believe the Kremlin Chief’s long term could come to an abrupt end in the near future.

The Russian president’s offensive war efforts in Ukraine could be hurting domestic perceptions of the Kremlin, according to an increasingly more prominent argument. On the other hand, the possibility of a coup actually coming to fruition remains low, according to other experts. Below are several points laid out by both sides of the debate over Putin’s security in power.

How Putin Could Be Tossed Aside

In an interview with CNN this January, Putin’s former speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov predicted that a looming military coup could potentially unseat the Russian president over the next year. Gallyamov alluded to the domestic turmoil sweeping Russia at the moment, stemming from a deteriorating economy and discontent with the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The former speech writer elaborated: “The Russian economy is deteriorating,” Gallyamov said.

“The war is lost. There are more and more dead bodies returning to Russia, so Russians will be coming across more difficulties and they’ll be trying to find explanation why this is happening, looking around to the political process and they’ll be answering themselves: ‘Well, this is because our country is governed by an old tyrant, an old dictator.’” Additionally, Gallyamov outlined how Moscow’s abysmal war efforts in Ukraine are creating tensions among Russia’s military leadership.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group, is believed to be the top contender for Putin’s replacement if a coup does in fact erupt. The Russian president’s longtime ally has recently made headlines after claiming that his mercenary soldiers were solely responsible for seizing the town of Soledar in the Donetsk region- not Russian foot soldiers. The Wagner group leader even took to telegram this year to express his frustrations with the Kremlin, stating that “They are constantly trying to steal victory from the Wagner PMC [private military company] and talk about the presence of the unknown, only to belittle their merits.”

It Would Not Be Easy

While many Ukrainian and Western analysts believe Russian citizens are fully frustrated with Putin’s leadership, others are not as convinced. Considering the Kremlin’s tight grip on information they allow the public to consume, civilians may not be as cognizant to the reality of Russia’s dire position.

When Russian forces initiated its military intervention in Ukraine back in February 2022, more than 4,500 anti-war demonstrators were detained across the country. The strong disincentive to protest the Kremlin in Russia suggests that constituents may be less poised to oppose their government.

This rationale indicates that if a coup were to erupt, it would stem from an inside job within the Kremlin’s leadership.

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Maya Carlin, a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin.