As the ongoing joint U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations wrap up in Vienna, concerns regarding the deal’s potential loopholes are mounting. The final stage of the negotiations is aimed at salvaging the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the U.S. withdrew from under the Trump administration. This week, a bipartisan group of 50 House Members including 34 Democrats wrote a letter to Biden expressing grave concern over the nuclear deal, urging the White House to consult with Congress prior to signing on.
Brokering an Uneasy Deal
According to the pretense of the deal, Iran committed to curtailing aspects of its nuclear program in exchange for sanction relief. Perhaps the most significant relief Tehran received from the deal was the relaxed restrictions on its ballistic missiles program. Now that Iran is on the edge of achieving its nuclear breakout time, its development of advanced ballistic missiles would make it the ideal vessel to carry nuclear weapons. Despite this sticking point, the White House seems prepared to revive the JCPOA anyway.
The U.S. intelligence community has time and time again referred to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal as the largest in the Middle East. In March, then-U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Gen. Kenneth McKenzie characterized Tehran’s missile force as “the greatest threat to the region’s security,” adding that the regime has “developed an arsenal of nuclear-warhead capable ballistic missiles and has tested these weapon platforms multiple times.” Even prior to the onset of the JCPOA, Iran’s leadership had invested heavily in its ballistic missile program.
Since 2015, three previously hidden underground missile complexes have surfaces, which analysts suspect are accompanied by ballistic missile storage and launch sites. Iran currently possesses more than 3,000 ballistic missiles, many of which can be supplied to the regime’s region-wide proxy affiliates.
Pushing the JCPOA Through
Under the JCPOA, the signatories of the Iran deal – the U.S., the European Union, and the United Nations – agreed to lift sanctions on Tehran. As detailed by the Council on Foreign Relations, these parties agreed to lift an existing UN ban on Tehran’s transfers of ballistic missiles and other conventional weapons after five years pending approval from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Pursuant to UN Security Council Resolution 2231, international prohibitions against Iran’s ballistic missile tests will lapse in October 2023. The Dispatch outlined the resolution thoroughly:
“The new injunction against missile testing lapsing in 2023 is but one of several phased prohibitions popularly termed “sunsets.” Iran, likely assisted by its Russian and Chinese lawyers in the P5+1 negotiating mechanism, successfully replicated and pushed for the sunset-driven model to be applied other areas as well, be it lapsing restrictions on its nuclear program found in the JCPOA or the now terminated prohibition against conventional arms transfers from UNSCR 2231.”
During the three years that Iran participated in the JCPOA, the regime violated UNSCR 2231 repeatedly. From 2015-2018, Iran launched at least 27 ballistic missiles in both testing and operational capacities. Last year, Iran said its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired more than a dozen surface-to-surface ballistic missiles. Iranian-state media outlets said that long-range missiles with the ability to reach 1250 miles could reach U.S. bases in the region, in addition to the Jewish state of Israel. A few months later, Tehran revealed its indigenous Khaybar Sheikan missile, which has a reported range of 900 miles.
Iran has shown that it is willing to defy treaty obligations in order to advance its arsenal of ballistic missiles meant for offensive purposes. Tehran has prioritized the advancement and expansion of its ballistic missile program for two reasons. First, the IRGC needs ballistic missiles to carry nuclear warheads. Second, Iran severely lacks air power and precision-strike capability and for this reason, relies on its missile program to project power and strike adversaries.
An Iranian missile is displayed during a rally marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan in Tehran, Iran April 29, 2022. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
A revived JCPOA that fails to address the regime’s ballistic missiles program would be worthless.
Maya Carlin is a Middle East Defense Editor with 19FortyFive. She is also an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel.
GhostTomahawk
September 2, 2022 at 2:58 pm
So essentially we will lift sanctions, crank up their economy and in 2023 they can build ballistic missiles. Then with the world buying oil from them they can stock pile money and develop nuclear capabilities and when JCPOA sunsets they’ll unveil the nukes they build in secret.
Great deal!!
If I were going to do something in the down low and get some sucker to fund it…. this is EXACTLY how I would do it.
Iran will build the nukes anyways. They have help from China and Russia who are trading with them. All we will end up doing is funding it.
More Neville Chamberlain paper waving.
“See, look what I did Iran said they won’t build nukes for a couple years. Ask we have to do is give them money. ”
????????????????
Arash P
September 2, 2022 at 4:43 pm
If you want oil from Iran, buy it. If you don’t want it, don’t buy it!
Iran is not going to commit to indefinite unilateral disarmament just because you are giving it a privilege to buy its oil!
Teimour Bakhtiar
September 2, 2022 at 6:31 pm
What is it about you-the blinkered, self-appraised & wishy-washy characters in the West – That can only see yourselves on this planet – Every other race or creed – can just get lost – Is that it?
Whilst only, until four centuries ago, the lot of you in the so-called West – were living in pockets of diseased-ridden, extremely, poverty-stricken and inhuman, lawless societies! You have, however, somehow, did manage to develop the post-enlightenment years of the Renaissance, with some most barbaric European wars, into a progressive & civilisational period of your short history!
Today – however – because of the past & short, brutal history – The Anglo-Saxons, consciously, allowed their communities to develop into convenient, White-only homes to belligerent, racist and war-mongering societies. Which you people believe, it entitles you to insult a country like Iran, with seven millennia of rich history!
Alas – unknown to most of you ignorant people in the West: It was us-the Persians, who brought you-the blinkered, Anglo-Saxons, the theoretical science, Maths, Physics, Medicine, Chemistry, Philosophy and literature!
It took you a full theft of what our [Persian] ancestors had brought to the modern age – The whole of the Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution, to empower & get you-the Anglo-Saxons, to where you are, today!
Whereas – It took us-the Iranians, one Islamic Revolution or one giant leap of separation from the falsity of the Western world – For us the Iranians, to have this mammoth leap forward: To have all this scientific progress, single-Handedly that is, achieved: in just under thirty-five short years of history – Eat your hearts out-the ignorant & barbaric West – The old-Persia is slowly but surely, on its way back! No military threats or the “Maximum-pressure” economic sanctions by the barbarians in the West, shall stop the Iranians!
Long Live ?? Independent Iran!
Teimour Bakhtiar
September 2, 2022 at 6:54 pm
What is it about you-the blinkered, self-appraised & wishy-washy characters in the West – That can only see yourselves on this planet – Every other race or creed – can just get lost – Is that it?
Whilst only, until four centuries ago, the lot of you in the so-called West – were living in pockets of diseased-ridden, extremely poverty-stricken and inhuman-lawless societies! Somehow, you did manage to develop the post-enlightenment years of the Renaissance, mixing it with some barbaric European wars, subsequently, developing your societies into a progressive: arts & technology driven civilisation!
Today – however – because of the past-short & brutal history – The Anglo-Saxons, consciously, allowed their communities to develop into convenient, White-only homes to belligerent, racist and war-mongering societies. Which you mostly believe, entitles you to insult a country like Iran, with seven millennia of rich history!
Alas – unknown to most of you people in the West: It was us-the Persians, who brought you-the blinkered, Anglo-Saxons, the theoretical science, Maths, Physics, Medicine, Chemistry, Philosophy and literature!
In that, it took you a full theft of what our [Persian] ancestors had brought to the modern age – The whole of the Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution, to empower & get you-the Anglo-Saxons, to where you are today!
Whereas – It took us-the Iranians, one Islamic Revolution or one giant leap of separation from the falsity of the Western world – For us the Iranians, to have this mammoth leap forward: To have all this scientific progress, single-Handedly that is, achieved: in just under thirty-five short years of history – Eat your hearts out-the ignorant & barbaric West – The old-Persia is slowly but surely, on its way back! No military threats or the “Maximum-pressure” economic sanctions – shall stop the Iranians!
Long Live ?? Independent Iran!