Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Might Already Be Underway

The leader of Russia’s Wagner Group said on a statement on Telegram this week that Ukraine’s long-rumored counteroffensive has already begun. 

In a post shared on Yevgeny Prigozhin’s official Telegram channel, Ukrainian forces were said to have “unlimited” personnel and shells, and have already begun pushing back against Russian troops and Wagner’s private fighters. 

“The UAF [Ukrainian Armed Forces] have started its counteroffensive; they have ‘unlimited’ personnel and shells,” Prigozhin said, adding that Wagner forces continue to make gains in the city of Bakhmut despite the news.

“[Russian forces in Artyomovsk] control area of 54,000 square meters. The enemy still controls 2.64 square kilometers,” Prigozhin continued. 

The Wagner leader had previously suggested the Ukrainian offensive could occur as soon as May 15. 

Russia Prepares Media to Handle Upcoming Offensive

While Prigozhin’s comments may or may not be true, the Kremlin has begun preparing national media outlets for the possibility of major Russian losses in the coming weeks.

A report from Meduza, an independent Russian media outlet, revealed on May 2 that the nation’s media outlets have been instructed by the Kremlin “not to downplay expectations for the NATO-supported counteroffensive.” 

Meduza’s report also revealed that Russian outlets were instructed not to tell readers that Kyiv is “unprepared” to launch an effective counteroffensive. Instructions given to Russian news outlets in the form of an official Kremlin document also tell outlets to emphasize the role that Western countries will play in the counteroffensive. 

Sources also suggested that the Kremlin is preparing for all possibilities if any such counteroffensive occurs. If the Russians are able to hold on to their lines of defense, it will be a great victory against Ukraine. If Ukraine wins and Russian forces are pushed out of Ukraine, the loss will be “explainable.”

“If the offensive is a failure, [the Russian authorities] will be able to say that [Russia’s] army adeptly repelled an extremely powerful attack. The value of this victory will increase significantly,” an unnamed source also told Meduza.

“If Ukraine, with the help of weapons from the U.S. and Europe, is successful and takes territory, the loss will be explainable, too; after all, the West has focused a tremendous amount of effort on the front, but its successes — when compared to those efforts — have been very modest. In other words, overall, the Russian army has held its own,” the source added. 

While Ukraine is reportedly hiding the details of its planned counteroffensive from the White House, citing concerns over a recent leak of classified documents, U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said this week that Ukraine has the capability to launch an effective assault. 

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Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive’s Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.